Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption well known to international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
