A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
